Newsmaker

Who won the debate? That is the all important question. From my own personal vantage point, no one won, which someone pointed out means Obama won. By virtue of being ahead, a tie means he is still ahead. McCain has been desperate for a game changer, and he didn’t get one at the debate.

Of course, the pundits are pundits, and actual voter reaction is most important; so here it is:

CBS Insta Poll: Obama 39%, McCain 25% and 36% not sure who won

MediaCurves.com: Independents gave Obama a 61% to 38% win.

CNN: Obama “did better” 51%, McCain “did better” 38%. Men even split. Women Obama 59% to McCain 41%. (Maybe as my classmate pointed out McCain in HDTV is not pretty)

Insider Advantage: Obama 42%, McCain’s 41% and 17% not sure who won.

And of course, Sunday’s Gallup Tracking Poll: Obama 50%, McCain 42%

Things the pundits said that I think are important:

Pat Buchanan (Also, how did this right wing yahoo/semi-racist warm his way into my heart with his charmingly unbiased reporting) recalled that while working for Reagan, the cowboy did not do that well in a debate against Mondale. But as the media buzz grew people’s perceptions of Reagan’s victory grew to above 80%, despite Pat’s belief that Reagan was terrible. So expect this again and forever.

John McCain visibly could not stand Obama. McCain never once looked Obama in the eye.

McCain got angry a few times, repeatedly told Obama he didn’t understand, and appeared flummoxed. Not to mention, McCain kept referring to how old he is. While Obama stayed calm and was not afraid to agree with McCain. Possible perception being that McCain is an angry old man with a temper (we have heard this before).

When Obama gave his laundry list of things he believes McCain was wrong about, McCain retreated to talking about how he stands up for wounded veterans (a point having nothing to do with Obama’s complaints). At some point he will be perceived as hiding behind the flag.

McCain’s best moment was when he said the next president won’t have to worry about winning the war in Iraq, but instead when and how we leave. This is an extremely good mantra for his campaign.

Obama did not do well on the Iran issue. And the exchange about Henry Kissinger was silly.

My thoughts:

McCain really did look grumpy, angry, insert various adjectives he needs to avoid here. Substantively though, he did rather well especially considering the first third of the debate was on the economy, the subject he has failed to talk about correctly for quite some time. On the flip side, Democrats don’t do well on foreign policy, the next two debates won’t be on foreign policy, and Obama avoided damage.

McCain was constantly on script and Obama was not. McCain said Obama just doesn’t understand, and yet Obama seemed to understand foreign policy quite well.

McCain’s views of the crisis in Georgia are horrible (please see my post on the CIAR panel on the conflict).

Obama missed the opportunities to point out that we still haven’t found Osama, at least not in a clear way. Just say, “Where is Bin Laden?” and say it a lot. Also, Obama’s stance on Iraq is becoming increasingly convoluted. He is trying to explain that McCain was wrong to want to go in there in the first place, but he can’t reconcile this with the success of the surge. He should point out that McCain advocated for the surge under the pretext that it would give the Iraq’s the opportunity to come to a political solution, but no political solution has come to pass.

Obama’s best moment was when following John McCain’s explanation of how the dead soldiers bracelet that he wears around his wrist proves he understands the troops better, Obama replied, “You know John I have a bracelet too…”

So basically, if stylistic issues matter, Obama probably won by a lot simply because McCain would not condescend himself to make eye contact with Obama. On the other hand, if substance matters it was a draw and both sides should be kicking themselves for failed opportunities to win.

Finally, John McCain was born before the Depression ended (1936). So when at the beginning of the debate he said that this financial crisis was the worst in his life time, he either incorrectly remembered when he was born or has come full circle and now believes that we are royally screwed.

Up next, Joe “I have foot in mouth disease” Biden v. Sarah “Every time I open my mouth I cause a crisis” Palin in what will undoubtedly be a glorious if not cringe worthy circus side show…Sweet!!!

So last week I went to The Cornell International Affairs Review’s (CIAR) panel discussion on the conflict in Georgia that erupted when Russia moved into Georgia’s separatist South Ossetian and Abkhazian regions. The speakers were Eastern European expert Valerie Bunce (You should take her post-communist transitions class) and Irakli Kakabadze, a visiting scholar and participant in Georgia’s independence movement, known as the “Rose Revolution.”

What shocked me was how biased the US media coverage was. Georgia is one of Bush’s closest allies and, as Bunce explained, one of the only places in the world that likes him. The fact is that this conflict was not all Russia’s fault. The US helped provoke this, and the Georgian president helped provoke this. At the end of the day, Russia did invade a sovereign nation and that is bad. Russia’s doing this was ultimately stupid because, as both Bunce and Kakabadze pointed, out Russia has over 80 potential separatist regions.

This talk was a strong reminder of the dangers of basing a state upon ethnic or religious affiliation instead of intellectual understandings of freedoms and rights.

Here is a bullet point summary of what I learned:

• From Bunce
  • This conflict is not local but the US and Russia pissing each other off
  • The started when Georgia sent forces to the separatist regions to defeat militants
  • Georgia is tied closely to Bush and Cheney, and they were pressured to act
  • Saakashvili knows he couldn’t keep these territories, but provoked the war to package their loss in a politically beneficial way
  • The Russians invaded because they were pissed off at the West and think NATO is trying to destroy their national sovereignty
  • Putin just needed to show he still has regional sovereignty
  • Saakashvili wanted to keep power and save face as did Putin; so this staged violence helped both of them
• From Kakabadze
  • Saakashvili has abandoned democracy and has embraced Bush’s neoconservative world view…oh and McCain’s comments were stupid and unhelpful
  • Saakashvili had come to power in the democratic Rose Revolution, but as Lord Acton said, “absolute power corrupts absolutely”
  • Saakashvili wants to join NATO because war is profitable…The Military Industrial Complex
  • “How did America produce both Bob Dylan and George Bush?”
  • The US stopped giving civil society support, but instead sent lots of guns and guns tend to get used to kill people
  • We should create peace zones, which the European Union Secures
    • It will protect the West’s oil pipelines
    • It will prevent NATO’s reach and make Russia feel safe
  • We need more UN, fewer police states

The media is a bunch of pansy pussies with useless degrees that prove they are too scared to get on the front lines and do something. Or at least this is my assessment of the near total free card the press gave the GOP last week.

When the media got attacked by Palin and McCain they should have defended themselves (Joe Klein did, he is excused from this indictment). There is nothing biased about reporting on things. Instead they reported on whether or not they are biased. This, in addition to being a ridiculous exercise in self aggrandizement as the media now believes that they are the story, is also a waste of time.

Watching the Republican convention was like attending a lecture on logical yoga. I watched with astonishment as Mitt Romney (a governor from my hometown of Boston who while governor championed gay rights, universal healthcare, and the expansion of abortion rights, but now apparently is against all that) a man of unimaginable wealth from the upper reaches of a society none of us could ever imagine of obtaining explained that the problem with government is East Coast elites. I am from the fucking East Coast and I can tell you he is the damn East Coast elite. Mitt Romney is the sail boating, croquet playing, elite clubbing, namby pamby bullshit he spent last week attacking. Apparently my econ teacher is wrong and if A=B and B=C then C doesn’t equal A. Following in these footsteps Mike Huckabee explained that all the issues we have had in the past 8 years is due to “European Ideas.” I didn’t realize George Bush went to college in Europe!!! Yes folks, the RNC proved that at times indifference curves do intersect.

The problem is that for the past 8 years the GOP has controlled the White House and both chambers of Congress. Yes the past 2 years the congress has been democratic, so Palin’s little attack about them being the do nothing congress might have been valid except that they did many things which were either vetoed or filibustered by the Republicans. So the GOP has controlled government, A=B. Then the country went to shit and he all lost our jobs, our security, our rights, and our economy. This was largely due to actions by the government be it an expensive war following huge tax cuts or the PATRIOT Act (yes it is all capitals because it is an acronym for something it is pretending to be). So the government has created our problems, B=C. And there is of course the theme of the McCain campaign C does not equal A. The mind boggles.

Instead A apparently equals liberal government despite not actually being in charge, European ideas, the teachers union, community organizers, and of course the media. Oh the media!!! When will you learn how not to destroy our government despite a complete inability to make any governmental decisions. Forget this notion of liberal media bias. The only out and out biased media source is FOX NEWS. They are the media. They are conservative. But the media has a liberal bias. Again C does not equal A. The rest of the media gets caught up trying to prove themselves unbiased and never actually reports anything.

I heard numerous lies this past week that the media never touched on:

1)      Obama will raise taxes on the middle class. He won’t – he will only raise tax on the top 5% or those making well over $250,000 (basically Mitt Romney and Cindy McCain)

2)      Drilling for oil will reduce our dependence on foreign oil. It won’t — we only have 3% of the world’s oil supply.

3)      Drilling for oil will reduce the price of gas. It won’t — we won’t see any new oil hit our tanks for 7 years if we start drilling today.

4)      Drilling for oil will reduce the price of gas even though we won’t see it for 7 years because the fact that there will be new oil will scare prices down. It won’t because OPEC, which gives the world most of its oil, is a monopoly and monopolies set the price and they do not listen to Congress when deciding this price.

5)      John McCain is for developing alternative energy. Even if he is he has a funny way of showing it, The NYT reported last week the McCain has deliberately not voted the past 8 times for federal funding for the development of more solar and wind power.

6)      Obama is against nuclear power. He isn’t. He is for it although he probably shouldn’t be because one day we are going to destroy a part of out country with that stuff and I bet you it won’t affect Romney’s or any of McCain’s houses.

Basically folks, A does equal C. And if the media is too cowardly to point it out when attacked by the GOP then they are working in the wrong profession.

I don’t mind if the Republicans provide their own alternative vision for the future, especially if they truly want a Party that moves away from the policies of Bush. But I do mind their attempts to rewrite history and blame Bush’s errors on the very people who were trying to stop him.

Wow…Palin reminded me last night why I never played hockey, the parents are too vicious. That was one hell of an attack dog speech. She even called her self a dog. She came out swing. If you are any of the following Palin attacked you for not putting country first: Obama, the Obamas, Biden, the media, a democrat, a liberal, a San Franciscian, a Hollywoodian, an East Coaster, a Gay, a Muslim, a Jew, someone who can’t skin a moose, Caption Spock, etc.

I have two thoughts. One, I am not sure being angry and hateful and vengeful towards others is really an effective tactic. What if, God forbid, democrats actually do love their country? What if San Francisco actually loves this country? What if love for country is not really a questionable thing? Beyond being divisive it is insulting. Last night Palin looked like she was going to lead the convention out into the streets with touches and pitch forks laying waste to anyone from St. Paul to Hollywood. At first I thought Country First was a good pitch for, “John McCain, the maverick, who stood up to his party and put country above the elephant.” But he first had to allow 3 days of the party he once fought. I have come to realize ‘country first’ means Obama and all democrats are unpatriotic. Yet again Bush steals McCain’s message.  

The second, thing I would like to point out is that Obama in his convention effectively turned the tables. Obama, and the democrats, effectively learned how to attack the Republican’s. Leading up to the convention day after day McCain would attack Obama’s energy plan, his speeches, his supposed love of arugula (I’m more of and endive man). Obama was constantly on the defensive. Then Obama figured it out and started attacking first. He started putting McCain on the defensive. Then McCain forgot how many houses he owned and then Palin’s family had some babies-mama’s problems. The point is when you listen to the entire Republican convention they have been on the defensive. They are not talking about their policies. And more importantly they are not guiding the debate they are responding to the debate.

The reason this matters is conventions are the best time to gain or pick up ground. If you are on the defensive no matter how nasty Palin’s words were they were still within a narrative shaped by Obama.

I hear that McCain tonight promises to put forward some policies. This would be a good idea because right now they are not playing their own game.

There are those rare moments in life when you realize you are watching something special. I have felt this a few times in my life — the Red Sox wining the world series, Barack Obama’s 2004 convention speech — but tonight Keith Olbermann added a moment to my list. It was the last ten minutes of the show and in retrospect might be one of the defining moments of his career.

It was famously said by LBJ, “If I’ve lost Cronkite, I’ve lost America.” He said this because the most trusted man in America went on TV live from Vietnam and said, “But it is increasingly clear to this reporter that the only rational way out then will be to negotiate, not as victors, but as an honorable people who lived up to their pledge to defend democracy, and did the best they could.”

While Olbermann’s appeal is to a liberal audience and is clearly not the trusted man in American nor even on cable for that matter. Tonight he made remarks which at least to me as a defining moment in his career and possibly like Cronkite’s remarks a turning point in this war. Not the war abroad but the war at home.

Please watch and try to find the time to watch it all.

Part 1 of 2:

Part 2 of 2: